Saturday, July 16, 2011

How to Make a Decision

For rational decision making to take place, there must be an effort to select, by a logical method of analysis, the best alternative from among the feasible alternatives. while difficult to isolate into discrete items, the analysis can be thought of as including eight elements.

1.Recognition of a problem: the realization that a problem exists is first step in problem solving.
2.definition of the goal or objectives to be accomplished: what is the task?
3.Assembly of relevant data: what are the facts? Do we need to gather additional data? Is the additional information worth at least what it costs us to obtain itt?
4.Identification of feasible alternatives: what are the practical alternative ways of accomplishing our  objective or task?
5.Selection of the criterion for judging the best alternative: what is the single criterion most important to the solution of the problem?There are many possible criteria from which to choose. Theymay be political, economic, ecological, humanitarian, or whatever. A single criterion may be selected, or it may be a composite of several different criteria.
6.Construction of the various interrelationships: this phase is frequently called mathematical modeling.
7.Prediction of outcomes for each alternative.
8.choose the best alternative to achieve the objective.

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